Punggol East by-election

You expected me to blog about the by-election in Punggol East didn't you? Well, I expected you to expect that so why not?

The last time Singapore saw a four-cornered electoral battle was the 2011 presidential election where Tony Tan won it unconvincingly. The current by-election, which also boasts four candidates, has several similarities to the presidential election.

Firstly, we have the conservative which is the PAP candidate and then the non-PAP candidate who hovers between right and centre on the political spectrum. The other two candidates sit between centre and left with one of them leaning more away from the middle.

No prizes for guessing who's who in the above paragraph.

Like the presidential election, the two candidates of higher winning probability have been the centre of attention of each other. The remaining duo are or used to be supportive of each other and they are expected to receive no more than one-third of the votes.

If it was a straight fight between PAP and the Workers' Party like the Hougang by-election, things would have been less interesting. The PAP would look like the only "bad guy" with the WP, being the opposition, criticizing it for its performance and policies.

However, the addition of Singapore Democratic Alliance and Reform Party has changed the roles of everyone. Both of them have criticized not only the PAP but also the WP. They believe that the WP is not doing enough despite having 8 seats in parliament.

They are certain that they can become the "third party" by presenting another side in parliament. In a whole, the biggest victim of this four-sided fight is WP. It not only has to spar with the PAP, dismiss claims by RP and SDA that it is not an effective opposition but also prove that it is the biggest (and maybe best) alternative party.

The advantage that PAP has in this by-election is that it is PAP. The PAP brand will definitely secure at least 30% of the votes, with brainwashed old folks making up the majority of this 30%.

At least another 30% of voters are hardcore non-PAP voters. This means that there are roughly 40% of swing votes which can go to either candidate. But the presence of two extra opposition parties will allow part of the 30% non-PAP votes to flow to them.

Assuming that 3 out of the 10 swing voters opt for the man in white, PAP would have garnered 42%, an amount which looks positive enough for a victory in a four-cornered election.

The candidates of RP and SDA would not see a defeat as a bad result since they managed to do some publicizing for their parties during the campaign. A defeat would also not feel like a defeat if they managed to get back their deposits for getting more than 12.5% of the votes.

So here is my prediction.

PAP: 37%
WP:  38%
SDA: 10%
RP:  15%

Despite facing attacks from three different sides, the Workers' Party will be able to make it through and claim an unglam victory over the PAP by a single percentage point.

SDA will be able to improve on its dismal 4.45% during the last general election but still lose the deposit. Newcomers (some label it as sabo king) Reform Party can receive a respectable 15% owing to the legacy of their founder, the late J.B. Jeyaretnam.

PAP have only themselves to blame for losing another seat in parliament. The greenhorn candidate which they decided on will cost them a number of previous votes which will go to the WP's candidate who had also contested in Punggol East in the last GE.

Oh, and nothing much will change after all since WP is rather patient and compassionate towards PAP.