This is the third and final part of the three-part series on predicting the results of the 2011 general elections. Today, I will discuss the remaining nine GRCs which are contested. I almost had to include Tanjong Pagar if not because of 35 seconds.
Holland-Bukit Timah
PAP vs SDP
If Aljunied GRC is the most exciting battle to watch, then this one is definitely the runner-up. The opposition consists of a PhD holder, a former government official, a well-known doctor and an educator. Such a team is strong enough to rival any PAP side on paper.
The SDP team also consists of three candidates who have ministerial potential (should the opposition topple PAP). Vivian Balakrishnan leads a relatively weaker team which includes two first-term MPs, a new candidate, all three without any experience in fighting an electoral battle.
If the opposition can step up and convince voters in the next few days, I don't see why they cannot put the sword into Vivian's throat and end the minister-whom-overspent-at-the-YOG's political career.
Final score: PAP 44%-56% SDP
Jurong
PAP vs NSP
The battle of the unknowns. Only Tharman Shanmugaratnam's name catches my attention when I looked at the list of candidates standing in this ward. NSP are just having some fun here, they would be happy if they can secure 45% of the votes.
Sadly, that is only a dream, Reality is that this opposition team is not strong enough to make the swing voters support them. Idealistic they may be but absolutely not realistic.
Jurong GRC has always seen dull contests so the result should not be an unexpected one. NSP has already lost half the battle before war is declared.
Final score: PAP 64%-36% NSP
Marine Parade
PAP vs NSP
I promised to be unbiased but I can't help but think that Goh Chok Tong and co. will end up as the losers here. The NSP team are a competent side which includes the popular "female general" Nicole Seah.
Moreover, the PAP team has the legendary Tin Pei Ling in it. This is bound to cost them a considerable amount of votes as many people are opposed to having such a low-quality MP whose biggest regret is not bringing her parents to Universal Studios.
Pei Ling's fellow newcomer, Tan Chuan Jin appears to be too cocky and arrogant. He speaks as if he will definitely win when he is just hitching a ride from SM Goh. I foresee that if PAP wins this one, there will be a public protest to stop Tin Pei Ling from entering parliament.
NSP should play the man-to-man attacks like what PAP is so fond of doing. Attack the two newcomers of PAP and hope that the neutral voters will agree with what they say. This would be the closest fight of all.
Final score: PAP 49%-51% NSP
Moulmein-Kallang
PAP vs WP
Low Thia Khiang was tipped to contest in this GRC. Without him, the WP team looks a par below to the PAP where half of the squad are ministers.
Voters here are likely to opt for stability by voting for PAP. Grassroots leaders will play an important part in helping the PAP to publicize.
WP's intention of standing here is just to give voters a choice. Voters are happy with the opportunity to vote but I bet they won't give WP much face.
Final score: PAP 55%-45% WP
Nee Soon
Led by John Yam, this WP team is at three times better than the one at Moulmein-Kallang. The PAP team is headed by Law Minister K.Shanmugam and it would be a tough fight for both parties.
PAP would be sweating over this one but they should be able to emerge victorious at the end of the day. It appears to be seen how much of a gap will the two parties have in terms of votes.
As minister of law, there seems to be nothing much that Shanmugam can be attacked about. So the topics here would be mainly on bread and butter issues.
Final score: PAP 53%-47% WP
Pasir Ris-Punggol
PAP vs SDA
Teo Chee Hean and co. beat the SDA by 27.4% of votes in the last elections. This time, they face the same opponent but expect the result to be slightly different.
The main man from the opposition here is Harminder Pal Singh. He was eloquent and makes some good points during his party's election rallies. However, the SDA of today pales in comparison to the one five years ago.
The alliance have been weakened by the absence of NSP and SPP. Also, Goh Kim Seng has pulled out of the team at the eleventh hour, further softening the team.
I hate Janil Puthucheary in the PAP side but I have to make do with seeing him becoming an MP when he has not even served National Service and "boasts" that his NS is saving kids' lives.
Final score: PAP 55%-45% SDA
Sembawang
PAP vs SDP
The main man here is definitely Khaw Boon Wan who is also minister of health. His four other teammates are just there to fill in the voids. On the other hand, the SDP consists of a wide variety of candidates.
James Gomez and John Tan, both academics, will spearhead SDP's attack in this ward. Gomez should be able to defeat the PAP if he can brainwash enough neutral voters to believe that PAP is hypothetical.
Mind games will be the pivotal factor here. Judging from the response in this area, Khaw Boon Wan might need to get ready to pack his bags for Johor Bahru.
Final score: PAP 47%-53% SDP
Tampines
PAP vs NSP
Nothing much to discuss here, except that Mah Bow Tan will lose lots of votes because of his screw-up of the housing system. NSP just need to harp on this issue throughout the entire campaign.
The interesting part would be how many votes will Mah lose and are they enough to give NSP a victory here? Goh Meng Seng and co. should also talk about the facilities here since there is still much room for improvement in this GRC.
Final score: PAP 48%-52% NSP
West Coast
PAP vs RP
At last, it is my constituency. Unlike the suicide squad at Ang Mo Kio, this RP team is more credible and sincere. It includes Andy Zhu and Kenneth Jeyaretnam, the chairman and secretary-general of the party.
None of the five PAP candidates here are worth mentioning. Lim Hng Kiang is simply the worst minister in the cabinet. There is also my former MP, Arthur Fong who is just a useless fake ang moh.
The PAP team alos consists of the controversial Foo Mee Har and picked-from-the-public-sector Lawrence Wong. While the former looks like Amy Khor No. 2 who only talks and talks, the latter is just a yesman in parliament.
RP are very sincere in winning this GRC. It is their first electoral battle anyway and they hope to end it with something won. I hope people can feel their sincerity and give them their support.
PAP only cares for you when elections are coming.
Final score: PAP 48%-52% RP
And there, I have finished predicting the results of all 26 constituencies. Now, we'll just have to wait for polling day to see how right or wrong am I.
Oh, and here is an interesting picture to share with you all.
Holland-Bukit Timah
PAP vs SDP
If Aljunied GRC is the most exciting battle to watch, then this one is definitely the runner-up. The opposition consists of a PhD holder, a former government official, a well-known doctor and an educator. Such a team is strong enough to rival any PAP side on paper.
The SDP team also consists of three candidates who have ministerial potential (should the opposition topple PAP). Vivian Balakrishnan leads a relatively weaker team which includes two first-term MPs, a new candidate, all three without any experience in fighting an electoral battle.
If the opposition can step up and convince voters in the next few days, I don't see why they cannot put the sword into Vivian's throat and end the minister-whom-overspent-at-the-YOG's political career.
Final score: PAP 44%-56% SDP
Jurong
PAP vs NSP
The battle of the unknowns. Only Tharman Shanmugaratnam's name catches my attention when I looked at the list of candidates standing in this ward. NSP are just having some fun here, they would be happy if they can secure 45% of the votes.
Sadly, that is only a dream, Reality is that this opposition team is not strong enough to make the swing voters support them. Idealistic they may be but absolutely not realistic.
Jurong GRC has always seen dull contests so the result should not be an unexpected one. NSP has already lost half the battle before war is declared.
Final score: PAP 64%-36% NSP
Marine Parade
PAP vs NSP
I promised to be unbiased but I can't help but think that Goh Chok Tong and co. will end up as the losers here. The NSP team are a competent side which includes the popular "female general" Nicole Seah.
Moreover, the PAP team has the legendary Tin Pei Ling in it. This is bound to cost them a considerable amount of votes as many people are opposed to having such a low-quality MP whose biggest regret is not bringing her parents to Universal Studios.
Pei Ling's fellow newcomer, Tan Chuan Jin appears to be too cocky and arrogant. He speaks as if he will definitely win when he is just hitching a ride from SM Goh. I foresee that if PAP wins this one, there will be a public protest to stop Tin Pei Ling from entering parliament.
NSP should play the man-to-man attacks like what PAP is so fond of doing. Attack the two newcomers of PAP and hope that the neutral voters will agree with what they say. This would be the closest fight of all.
Final score: PAP 49%-51% NSP
Moulmein-Kallang
PAP vs WP
Low Thia Khiang was tipped to contest in this GRC. Without him, the WP team looks a par below to the PAP where half of the squad are ministers.
Voters here are likely to opt for stability by voting for PAP. Grassroots leaders will play an important part in helping the PAP to publicize.
WP's intention of standing here is just to give voters a choice. Voters are happy with the opportunity to vote but I bet they won't give WP much face.
Final score: PAP 55%-45% WP
Nee Soon
Led by John Yam, this WP team is at three times better than the one at Moulmein-Kallang. The PAP team is headed by Law Minister K.Shanmugam and it would be a tough fight for both parties.
PAP would be sweating over this one but they should be able to emerge victorious at the end of the day. It appears to be seen how much of a gap will the two parties have in terms of votes.
As minister of law, there seems to be nothing much that Shanmugam can be attacked about. So the topics here would be mainly on bread and butter issues.
Final score: PAP 53%-47% WP
Pasir Ris-Punggol
PAP vs SDA
Teo Chee Hean and co. beat the SDA by 27.4% of votes in the last elections. This time, they face the same opponent but expect the result to be slightly different.
The main man from the opposition here is Harminder Pal Singh. He was eloquent and makes some good points during his party's election rallies. However, the SDA of today pales in comparison to the one five years ago.
The alliance have been weakened by the absence of NSP and SPP. Also, Goh Kim Seng has pulled out of the team at the eleventh hour, further softening the team.
I hate Janil Puthucheary in the PAP side but I have to make do with seeing him becoming an MP when he has not even served National Service and "boasts" that his NS is saving kids' lives.
Final score: PAP 55%-45% SDA
Sembawang
PAP vs SDP
The main man here is definitely Khaw Boon Wan who is also minister of health. His four other teammates are just there to fill in the voids. On the other hand, the SDP consists of a wide variety of candidates.
James Gomez and John Tan, both academics, will spearhead SDP's attack in this ward. Gomez should be able to defeat the PAP if he can brainwash enough neutral voters to believe that PAP is hypothetical.
Mind games will be the pivotal factor here. Judging from the response in this area, Khaw Boon Wan might need to get ready to pack his bags for Johor Bahru.
Final score: PAP 47%-53% SDP
Tampines
PAP vs NSP
Nothing much to discuss here, except that Mah Bow Tan will lose lots of votes because of his screw-up of the housing system. NSP just need to harp on this issue throughout the entire campaign.
The interesting part would be how many votes will Mah lose and are they enough to give NSP a victory here? Goh Meng Seng and co. should also talk about the facilities here since there is still much room for improvement in this GRC.
Final score: PAP 48%-52% NSP
West Coast
PAP vs RP
At last, it is my constituency. Unlike the suicide squad at Ang Mo Kio, this RP team is more credible and sincere. It includes Andy Zhu and Kenneth Jeyaretnam, the chairman and secretary-general of the party.
None of the five PAP candidates here are worth mentioning. Lim Hng Kiang is simply the worst minister in the cabinet. There is also my former MP, Arthur Fong who is just a useless fake ang moh.
The PAP team alos consists of the controversial Foo Mee Har and picked-from-the-public-sector Lawrence Wong. While the former looks like Amy Khor No. 2 who only talks and talks, the latter is just a yesman in parliament.
RP are very sincere in winning this GRC. It is their first electoral battle anyway and they hope to end it with something won. I hope people can feel their sincerity and give them their support.
PAP only cares for you when elections are coming.
Final score: PAP 48%-52% RP
And there, I have finished predicting the results of all 26 constituencies. Now, we'll just have to wait for polling day to see how right or wrong am I.
Oh, and here is an interesting picture to share with you all.
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