In case Singapore Pools shock the entire nation by opening odds for the coming elections for people to bet on, I have decided to make a full list of predictions on the outcome of the polls for your reference.
It will be split into three parts with today being the first one where I will discuss the first eight (in alphabetical order) out of the twelve SMCs which are contested. I will be unbiased and balanced in the predictions. I promise.
I am only predicting on the percentage that each party garners among the valid votes so I am not talking about those who spoil their votes.
Bukit Panjang
Teo Ho Pin (PAP) vs Alec Tok (SDP)
PAP scored 77% of the valid votes when they were up against the same opponent five years ago. Five years later, they face the same opponent but with a different man representing it.
Alec Tok looked destined to be contesting in Radin Mas SMC until he shockingly resigned from RP. Moving up from central to the west of Singapore, Alec might not be able to make his presence felt in the BP neighbourhood in such a short span of time.
Teo Ho Pin, the man linked with the 2008 sinking funds fiasco, to win this one but with a greater amount of displeasure at the ruling party, expect him to win no more than 20% of the votes.
Final score: PAP 60%-40% SDP
Hong Kah North
Amy Khor (PAP) vs Sin Kek Tong (SPP)
As a man, it would a real embarrassment for Mr Sin if he loses to the talkative Amy Khor. However, I think that is going to happen.
Much as I would like to see my most-hated female PAP member being defeated, I have to admit that chances of her winning is still higher than her opponent mainly because she has been the MP there and Mr Sin is just a "newcomer".
Swing voters might opt for security and stability by supporting PAP. Unlike his fellow party member, Chiam See Tong, Sin Kek Tong isn't a name that rings a bell in most Singaporeans.
Final score: PAP 63%-37% SPP
Hougang
Desmond Choo (PAP) vs Yaw Shin Leong (WP)
Battle of the Teochew men. As the older generation of Teochew candidates, Eric Low and Low Thia Khiang, vanish from this constituency, in front of them are two political rookies for voters to decide.
Hougang should still be an opposition ward after this election. A comfortable win for the WP. I predict that PAP will only receive a third of the valid votes.
Final score: PAP 33%-67% WP
Joo Chiat
Charles Chong (PAP) vs Yee Jenn Jong (WP)
This one will be a close fight. PAP beat the WP by a margrin of 20% in 2006, expect the gap to narrow down to 8% this time.
Charles Chong will be contesting there for the first time. Neutral voters might prefer to give WP their support as PAP has been stagnant in managing the area for the past five years.
This SMC almost saw a three-cornered fight until independent candidate Andrew Kuan stepped on the brakes and announced that he will not contest on the eve of nomination day.
But still, PAP are in pole position to grab this one thanks to the older residents.
Final score: PAP 54%-46% WP
Mountbatten
Lim Biow Chuan (PAP) vs Jeanette Chong-Aruldoss (NSP)
Another SMC which almost saw a triangular battle. Luckily, the independent chose to be gracious and pulled out of the contest, hence giving the opposition a higher chance of winning.
This would be a fair stalemate by elections do not end with draws. Lim Biow Chuan should be able to pull it off at the death. Jeanette is decent candidate but she still needs a few more years to build her own brand.
PAP to win this one after much sweating.
Final score: PAP 52%-48% NSP
Pioneer
Cedric Foo (PAP) vs Steve Chia (NSP)
Steve Chia can be considered as one of the more prominent opposition candidates after serving as an Non-Constituency MP from 2001-2006. Cedric Foo will be fighting on his own after his ward was carved out of West Coast GRC.
Let me divert away from the main topic for a while. Cedric Foo has gained some weight recently. He looks very different now compared to five years ago. His face is getting rounder and rounder.
Back to elections, Mr Chia looks capable of winning a seat for the opposition this time round as he faces a weaker opponent compared to Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong in CCK SMC in 2006.
Steve Chia will emerge victorious in this match, beating PAP by less than 5% of the votes.
Final score: PAP 47%-53% NSP
Potong Pasir
Sitoh Yih Pin (PAP) vs Lina Chiam (SPP)
Mr Sitoh will be carrying the PAP flag in this constituency for the third successive election. He should be able to achieve what he wants this time.
Lina Chiam appeared to be sloppy and indecisive on the CNA political forum a few weeks back. Her tardiness on national TV might cost her some precious votes. Moreover, she is also ageing.
Potong Pasir residents, like other Singaporean, want change. Their change is the facilities in their neighbourhood. PP has been deprived of upgrading since it was an opposition ward some twenty plus years back.
Final score: PAP 59%-41% SPP
Punggol East
Michael Palmer (PAP) vs Lee Li Lian (WP) vs Desmond Lim (SDA)
The one and only three-cornered at this election and the first in 10 years.
If only WP had been less obstinate and allowed the SDA to compete with PAP directly. Quite a predictable outcome for this constituency, PAP will have last laugh.
SDA has worked the ground at this area since the last elections concluded. However, Michael Palmer still has the upper hand as he has grassroots leaders at his disposal to publicize for him and sow discord between the two opposition sides.
Final score: PAP 47%-28% SDA 25% WP
It will be split into three parts with today being the first one where I will discuss the first eight (in alphabetical order) out of the twelve SMCs which are contested. I will be unbiased and balanced in the predictions. I promise.
I am only predicting on the percentage that each party garners among the valid votes so I am not talking about those who spoil their votes.
Bukit Panjang
Teo Ho Pin (PAP) vs Alec Tok (SDP)
PAP scored 77% of the valid votes when they were up against the same opponent five years ago. Five years later, they face the same opponent but with a different man representing it.
Alec Tok looked destined to be contesting in Radin Mas SMC until he shockingly resigned from RP. Moving up from central to the west of Singapore, Alec might not be able to make his presence felt in the BP neighbourhood in such a short span of time.
Teo Ho Pin, the man linked with the 2008 sinking funds fiasco, to win this one but with a greater amount of displeasure at the ruling party, expect him to win no more than 20% of the votes.
Final score: PAP 60%-40% SDP
Hong Kah North
Amy Khor (PAP) vs Sin Kek Tong (SPP)
As a man, it would a real embarrassment for Mr Sin if he loses to the talkative Amy Khor. However, I think that is going to happen.
Much as I would like to see my most-hated female PAP member being defeated, I have to admit that chances of her winning is still higher than her opponent mainly because she has been the MP there and Mr Sin is just a "newcomer".
Swing voters might opt for security and stability by supporting PAP. Unlike his fellow party member, Chiam See Tong, Sin Kek Tong isn't a name that rings a bell in most Singaporeans.
Final score: PAP 63%-37% SPP
Hougang
Desmond Choo (PAP) vs Yaw Shin Leong (WP)
Battle of the Teochew men. As the older generation of Teochew candidates, Eric Low and Low Thia Khiang, vanish from this constituency, in front of them are two political rookies for voters to decide.
Hougang should still be an opposition ward after this election. A comfortable win for the WP. I predict that PAP will only receive a third of the valid votes.
Final score: PAP 33%-67% WP
Joo Chiat
Charles Chong (PAP) vs Yee Jenn Jong (WP)
This one will be a close fight. PAP beat the WP by a margrin of 20% in 2006, expect the gap to narrow down to 8% this time.
Charles Chong will be contesting there for the first time. Neutral voters might prefer to give WP their support as PAP has been stagnant in managing the area for the past five years.
This SMC almost saw a three-cornered fight until independent candidate Andrew Kuan stepped on the brakes and announced that he will not contest on the eve of nomination day.
But still, PAP are in pole position to grab this one thanks to the older residents.
Final score: PAP 54%-46% WP
Mountbatten
Lim Biow Chuan (PAP) vs Jeanette Chong-Aruldoss (NSP)
Another SMC which almost saw a triangular battle. Luckily, the independent chose to be gracious and pulled out of the contest, hence giving the opposition a higher chance of winning.
This would be a fair stalemate by elections do not end with draws. Lim Biow Chuan should be able to pull it off at the death. Jeanette is decent candidate but she still needs a few more years to build her own brand.
PAP to win this one after much sweating.
Final score: PAP 52%-48% NSP
Pioneer
Cedric Foo (PAP) vs Steve Chia (NSP)
Steve Chia can be considered as one of the more prominent opposition candidates after serving as an Non-Constituency MP from 2001-2006. Cedric Foo will be fighting on his own after his ward was carved out of West Coast GRC.
Let me divert away from the main topic for a while. Cedric Foo has gained some weight recently. He looks very different now compared to five years ago. His face is getting rounder and rounder.
Back to elections, Mr Chia looks capable of winning a seat for the opposition this time round as he faces a weaker opponent compared to Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong in CCK SMC in 2006.
Steve Chia will emerge victorious in this match, beating PAP by less than 5% of the votes.
Final score: PAP 47%-53% NSP
Potong Pasir
Sitoh Yih Pin (PAP) vs Lina Chiam (SPP)
Mr Sitoh will be carrying the PAP flag in this constituency for the third successive election. He should be able to achieve what he wants this time.
Lina Chiam appeared to be sloppy and indecisive on the CNA political forum a few weeks back. Her tardiness on national TV might cost her some precious votes. Moreover, she is also ageing.
Potong Pasir residents, like other Singaporean, want change. Their change is the facilities in their neighbourhood. PP has been deprived of upgrading since it was an opposition ward some twenty plus years back.
Final score: PAP 59%-41% SPP
Punggol East
Michael Palmer (PAP) vs Lee Li Lian (WP) vs Desmond Lim (SDA)
The one and only three-cornered at this election and the first in 10 years.
If only WP had been less obstinate and allowed the SDA to compete with PAP directly. Quite a predictable outcome for this constituency, PAP will have last laugh.
SDA has worked the ground at this area since the last elections concluded. However, Michael Palmer still has the upper hand as he has grassroots leaders at his disposal to publicize for him and sow discord between the two opposition sides.
Final score: PAP 47%-28% SDA 25% WP
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